There was a vote of government reinforcement and a change of opposition in Hungary. Fidesz reached the biggest victory in Hungarian election history, and the Left suffered a historic defeat: while the opposition achieved a result better than 45 percent in 2010, it has now received only 35 percent. The Fidesz-KDNP thus obtained a two-thirds mandate in the election for the fourth time in a row. The Left lost every third of its supporters, 3 out of 10 left-wing voters in 2018 turned away from their political group. The opposition bloc received a total of 2 693 000 votes in the last parliamentary elections, and by the end of 2022 data processing we can state: it had barely exceeded 1 800 000 votes.
In the 2022 election, the ’central force field’ has been restored. Opposition parties tried to eliminate it in vain with a common list. Thus, from now on, Viktor Orbán will once again have a right-wing (3,5 per cent of the seats) and a left-wing opposition (28 per cent of the seats) in Parilament.
The better-than-expected result of Fidesz is due to Viktor Orbán’s higher support. This explains why opinion polls had not predicted such a big victory for Fidesz: Hungarians elected a prime minister and not a party on April 3. The most accurate prediction was made by Társadalomkutató.
Fidesz took revenge for its weaker result at the 2019 municipal elections. Recaptured lost settlements, such as several districts in Pest County, Miskolc, Szombathely, Eger and Tatabánya.
The strategy of primary election and cooperation failed. The strategy of putting forward a common left-wing list – chosen by the left for the 2022 election – has not lived up to its promise. The primary individual candidates, the prime ministerial candidate and the joint list institution also failed. Serious disputes and redesign are expected at all levels.
Opposition coalition was not successful in individual constituencies either. It only proved to be advantageous in Budapest, and even in the capital the left-wing coalition could benefit only minimally from this election strategy.
The tension between the left-wing parties is further increased by the fact that only two parties benefit from joining forces: DK has almost doubled the size of its parliamentary group (from 9 to 16 members), while Momentum has gained 11 seats having earlier no representation in parliament. MSZP-Párbeszéd maintained its position. The real losers are LMP and Jobbik: the former’s formation is in doubt, while the latter’s group has been halved.
Those parties that had been formed before 2010 to oppose Ferenc Gyurcsány and ultimately entered in alliance with him, have been destroyed. Péter Márki-Zay’s national career is most likely over, too. It is not an exaggeration to say that with the election of 2022 the future of the left is in the hands of Ferenc Gyurcsány.
The election result confirms Viktor Orbán’s political position in Europe. All attempts to overthrow him, such as withholding EU funds, have failed. Fidesz has become a point of reference for the European right wing (crisis management, child protection, example of building a political community, government performance, stability).
There were no scandalous incidents or electoral malpractice on the election day or during the counting of the votes that would affect the outcome of the election in any way, so the outcome of the 2022 election is not only unequivocal but legitimate, because the election was free and fair.
