According to a recent survey by the Nézőpont Institute, if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, Fidesz would likely achieve its 2022 result gaining 52 percent of the votes. The central political landscape has stabilised: Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party is still the strongest opposition force (12 percent), while Mi Hazánk has increased its support by one and a half times (9 percent) since the last elections. Additionally, the Two-Tailed Dog Party is expected to enter into the parliament with 9 percent support, providing further evidence of the opposition-changing mood among left-wing voters.
The spring session of the Parliament begins today, and on this occasion, the Nézőpont Institute has examined which parties would get into the Parliament, and with what results, if an election were held this Sunday.
Fidesz-KDNP maintains its lead in the electoral race. If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, more than half (52 percent) of Hungarians would vote for the party alliance. This means that despite the crisis of the past year, the governing parties’ lead has not eroded, and they continue to hold a stable lead in the Hungarian political competition.
On the opposition side, there have been both winners and losers since the last elections. The biggest winner is the Democratic Coalition led by Ferenc Gyurcsány, which has a quarter of the support of the governing parties, but remains the strongest opposition party with 12 percent of the votes. It is closely followed by the Our Homeland Movement, whose support has increased by one and a half times since April to 9 percent. The mood among left-wing voters to change the opposition is well reflected in the almost three-fold increase in support for the joke party, the Two-Tailed Dog Party (9 percent), which, together with Our Homeland, would be the third strongest party in the parliament.
One of the losers is Momentum (5 percent), which is in the middle of the opposition political spectrum and could just make it into the parliament, but currently has half the support of Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party, which is leading the race for the leadership of the left. The remaining opposition parties, including Jobbik (4 percent), MSZP (2 percent), LMP (2 percent), Párbeszéd (1 percent), are the obvious losers of the period since the last elections, as none of them would get into the parliament. Even those actors of the left-wing coalition with extra-parliamentary backgrounds, such as the Everybody’s Hungary People’s Party led by former left-wing prime ministerial candidate Péter Márki-Zay (2 percent) and the party of former Jobbik leader Péter Jakab (2 percent), ‘A Nép Pártján’ (On the People’s Side), would also fail to reach the entry threshold.
Methodology
The latest opinion-poll of the Nézőpont Institute was conducted between 20 and 22 of February, 2023, by interviewing 1,000 respondents by phone. For all surveys, the sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) by gender, age, region, type of settlement and education. In case of a sample size of 1000 respondents and a confidence level of 95 percent, the sampling error is ± 3.16 percent. Respondent base = Hungarian voters, respondents who are willing to vote in the elections. In order to calculate the parties’ national list results as accurately as possible, we use logistic regression.