In April, 28 percent of the total population would have elected Viktor Orbán as Prime Minister, but by October, one and a half times more, 43 percent of the respondents said the same – according to Nézőpont Intézet’s representative public opinion poll prepared at the request of Heti Válasz between October 17-21, 2015 by asking 1000 people. Support for the Prime Minister continues to be higher than that of the governing parties, which is only at 34 percent. The heightened support of Viktor Orbán can be attributed to the national unity that emerged with respect to the immigration crisis and to the fact that there is still no contender among party leaders who can challenge him.
While Viktor Orbán’s support has increased during the past half year, Gábor Vona would be elected as Prime Minister by only half his supporters compared to half a year ago. Jobbik’s party leader would have been elected to be Prime Minister by 13 percent of those asked in April, while in October only 7 percent responded in the same manner. Of the left-wing party leaders Ferenc Gyurcsány would be elected Prime Minister by most supporters, DK’s president would have receive 10 percent of the votes in April, while his support receded to 7 percent in October. József Tóbiás, Viktor Szigetvári and András Schiffer are supported by 1 percent each, respectively. PM politician Gergely Karácsony was favored by 6 percent in April, but his support also eroded to 3 percent. About 2 percent of respondents would not elect any of the party leaders to be Prime Minister, but could not name anyone who they would deem fit for this position either. Those uncertain or not responding accounted for 35 percent of all respondents.
Fidesz-KDNP’s base has been reinvigorated compared to the previous months, the governing party is currently at 34 percent. 17 percent of respondents favored Jobbik back in September, which support has fallen back by 5 percentage points to 12 percent. MSZP, DK, Együtt, PM and LMP’s support base have not changed in statistical terms compared to the September standings. The socialists are at 7 percent, having lost 1 percent of their support, DK is at 5 percent, Együtt has 2 percent after gaining 1 percent, PM is at 1 percent, while LMP’s support is unchanged at 4 percent. The combined ratio of those supporting other parties is currently 3 percent. Concealed voters and non-voters account for 32 percent of the total population, after the 28 percent that was registered in September.
Based on the anticipated election results (potential voters) the support level of the parties are registered as follows: Fidesz-KDNP 45, Jobbik 22, MSZP 10, DK 9, Együtt 2, PM 1, Liberals 1 and LMP 5 percent, while the potential voters of other parties are tallied also at 5 percent. The cause of change in the support ratios of potential support camps is often the slight changes of the relative activism of sympathizers among these support bases, there has been no effective deviation with respect to the standings of potential support bases compared to September.
Methodology
Nézőpont Intézet’s public opinion telephone poll completed during October 17-21, 2015 by asking 1000 people. This sample is representative, involving respondents over 18 years of age, based on gender, age, region, settlement type and schooling. In case of 1000 people samples the maximum margin of error is 3.2 percent.
Download here.