The government parties will win the 2019 European Parliament elections in Hungary. According to the experts’ opinion of the Nézőpont Institute, in case the Fidesz-KDNP political alliance manages to successfully mobilize its sympathizers, the popularity of the government parties can reach 55 percent.
The Fidesz-KDNP will surely get 13 seats in the European Parliament if it will be able to mobilize its voter’s camp just as it did in 2018, this number may increase to 14. In case of a less intense activity of the Fidesz camp, the Democratic Coalition (DK) can reach the second place with a support of 11 percent with the help of a strong campaign rally. The party of Ferenc Gyurcsány can get up to 3 seats. Right behind the DK is the MSZP-Dialogue with a 10 percent support, while the Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) with 9 percent is forced back to the fourth place. The Momentum Movement will also get one seat with a support of 7 percent, but the Politics Can Be Different (LMP) and the Our Homeland Movement (A Mi Hazánk Mozgalom) parties (with 3-3 percent support each), and the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party (with 2 percent support) will not have any.
The Nézőpont Institute has made an expert estimation covering several factors, such as personal and telephone survey results, electoral history data, electoral behavior in previous elections. Based on the latter, the Fidesz-KDNP will receive the highest number of votes in the European Parliament elections on 26 May and can reach a 55 percent voter’s support result. However, in order to achieve this the extent of voter mobilization capacity experienced in last year’s elections is also required. The second highest number of votes is expected to be gained by the Democratic Coalition’s list with 11 percent, right ahead the MSZP-Dialogue with 10 percent. Not only can it lose the title of the strongest opposition party, but the Jobbik with 9 percent can also be even dropped from the podium. The significant voter’s mobilization experienced by the end of the week also had its impact on the opposition side, due to this, the two left-wing parties might overtake the completely passive Jobbik, whose rate of votes received in last year’s elections will be halved consequently.
The Momentum Movement which also has successfully mobilized its voters in recent weeks might might also have a seat in the European Parliament. Up to a 7 percent voter’s support is also possible in their case. Due to the latter, Politics Can Be Different (LMP) – which is expected to reach only a 3 percent support – will suffer a significant loss of votes. The latter amount of support is expected to be gained by the Our Homeland Movement party, overtaking the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party with a two percent support.
The final voter turnout – which is expected to be about 39 percent according to experts of the Nézőpont Institute – will have a significant impact on the final result. The experts also expect increased voter activity in the last few days ahead the elections. The biggest beneficiary of this is the Fidesz-KDNP, which can reach 14 out of the 13 seats. The Democratic Coalition, the MSZP-Dialogue and the Jobbik can get 2-2-2 seats, while the Momentum Movement can send 1 representative to the European Parliament. If the Fidesz-KDNP is not supported in the last few days as much as it is expected at the moment, then the Democratic Coalition, or even the Momentum Movement, can get an additional seat in the European Parliament.
Methodology
The Nézőpont Institute’s expert estimation is based on a summary of personal and telephone polling data, and on taking into account factors such as increased election activity due to campaign rally, electoral history data, voter behavior based on previous polls, and potential party preference of silent voters. Expert estimation counts for a 39 percent voter turnout, a margin of error of this value may have a significant impact on party preferences.