As a result of the national consensus that emerged around the immigration issue the government side has bolstered its support by 5 percentage points to 34 percent by the end of September within the total population. Support for Fidesz-KDNP was this strong only prior to the announcement of the planned Internet tax last September as the most recent representative poll by Nézőpont Intézet indicated. Since the atrocities took place on September 16 at Röszke, in a week’s time, support for the security fence that was constructed at the Hungarian-Serbian „green” border grew by 18 percentage points, hence mobilizing that support to nearly three quarters of all Hungarians (73 percent).
The rejection of illegal immigration and the support for the government’s immigration policies have rapidly become a „national issue” extending across party boundaries. After an extended period of stabilization Fidesz-KDNP’s recent bolstering can presumably be attributed to this development. Support for the governing parties within the total population has increased by 5 percentage points to 34 percent by the end of September. Based on the representative poll during September 19-24, support for Fidesz-KDNP was this strong only prior to the announcement of the planned Internet tax last September. Jobbik is being supported by 17 percent of the people, which statistically corresponds to the 15 percent recorded in August. Support for MSZP, DK and LMP in all cases dropped by 1 percent, which is also considered to be within the margin of error. Consequently, the socialists are backed by 8 percent within the total population, while DK is supported by 5 percent and LMP by 4 percent. Együtt has leveled off at 1 percent, while other parties are backed by a combined 3 percent. Concealed voters and non-voters account for 28 percent of the total population after the 34 percent recorded in August, hence Fidesz-KDNP may have gathered its strengthened position largely from this camp.
Based on results projecting anticipated elections outcome (potential voters), the support for the parties can be tallied up as follows: Fidesz-KDNP 44 percent, Jobbik 26 percent, MSZP 9 percent, DK 8 percent, Együtt 2 percent, the Liberals 1 percent, while LMP is at 6 percent and other parties have a combined potential voter support of 4 percent. Therefore Fidesz-KDNP has gained strength among potential voters as well, since the migration issue has mobilized the support camp of the governing parties. In contrast, the immigration crisis has made potential DK supporters uncertain, reducing their support base generated from this segment by 5 percentage points.
Our research indicates that support for the security fence that was constructed at the Hungarian-Serbian „green” border grew by 18 percentage points, from 55 percent to 73 percent, hence mobilizing that support to nearly three quarters of all Hungarians. Satisfaction with border protection is also reiterated by the fact that extending the security fence to the Romanian and Croatian border is being supported by a similar ratio, 71 percentage of the people.
Methodology
The public opinion poll was conducted by telephone between September 19-24, 2015 with a sample of 1000 respondents. This is a representative sample of the population aged 18 years and older, classified by gender, age, region, residential settlement type and schooling completed. In case of a 1000 people sample such as this, the maximum margin of error is 3,2 percent.
Download here.