Fidesz-KDNP alliance lost the 2019 municipal election in Budapest, however won outside Budapest. If we were referring to votes on the parliamentary election, the nationwide and strong victory of Fidesz would be unquestionable.
According to a vote-converting analysis of Nézőpont Intézet, if a parliamentary election had been held in Hungary last Sunday, governing parties would have obtained a nearly two-thirds majority again (129 of the needed 133 for two-thirds.) Thus in the future the Fidesz-KDNP has full legitimacy to use a two-thirds majority in the Parliament, if it considers it necessary in some cases.
Which votes can be converted?
In municipal elections, voting citizens generally reward personal performance and vote based on the ability or confidence of local leaders. The local government elections of 2019 worked in many parts of the country, primarily in the capital and in several cities with county rights, this time following different principles. The majority of citizens who voted here did not care about personal performance and supposed aptitude, but voted primarily on the basis of their party preference. In particular, it rearranged the political map of Budapest’s local government system, pushing renowned and beloved pro-government mayors into opposition, but turning their opposition challenger into power.
Party preference voting facilitates conversion of votes into a supposed „October 13” parliamentary election. In countries can vote on party lists, but only on persons at other administrational levels, due to party preference voting they are also easy to convert. Methodically, three groups can be distinguished among the votes taken into account in the model calculation:
- County level party list votes
- Votes of the mayors of cities with county rights
- Votes of the mayor-candidates
In numerous cities with county rights, candidates did not run in party colors (Békéscsaba, Eger, Dunaújváros, etc.), but certain candidates can easily be classified on the political side. In the parliamentary election result, modeled below, we have used the bipolar power field to replace central power field, identifying the identifiable votes either in the voting camps of government parties or in a supposed opposition camp. Voters of MSZP, DK, Momentum, Jobbik and LMP were classified as members of the opposition camp, on the contrary supporters of Mi Hazánk and Kétfarkú Kutyapárt continued to be seen as a separate political force.
EU citizens with Hungarian address may not vote in the parliamentary election, but Hungarians abroad who do not have a Hungarian address, only their nationality, they may vote on the national list. Based on electoral history data and small-scale surveys of foreign nationals, both voter group differences favor Fidesz. EU citizens living in Hungary are less supportive, while 95% to 96% of foreigners are supporters of the government party. That is why, in our model calculations, we counted 222,000 Fidesz voters and 6,000 foreign voters supporting the opposition list, just like in 2018.
How does the electoral system works?
The legal Hungarian parliamentary electoral system in present recalculates the votes cast into mandate using mixed, majority and relative elements. Every Hungarian citizen with a Hungarian address to vote has two votes to vote for campaigners in individual constituencies and national party lists. Voting in individual constituencies will directly determine the fate of the 106 constituencies, the candidate who will receive the most votes in a single turn, and the system will also use the votes that are not required to obtain a mandate. Winning candidates do not need extra votes to win and votes cast on losing candidates nominated by parties that make the national list, if the candidate organization has reached the entry sole in the national summary, will be transferred to the national list as a fractional vote. Yet on the national list, if nationalities have not obtained preferential parliamentary mandates, 93 mandates will be distributed, based on the sum of direct votes over the entrance limit and the fractional votes, using the d’Hondt mathematical formula.
Presumed individual electoral district results of municipal elections
Based on the reclassification of polling results, it is estimated that Fidesz-KDNP candidates would have won in a “this Sunday” parliamentary election in 78 individual constituencies. In certain counties’ all-constituency victories can be calculated, including Bács-Kiskun County 6, Békés County 4, Győr-Moson-Sopron County 5, Hajdú-Bihar County 6, Heves County 3, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok County 4, Nógrád County 2, Somogy county 4, Tolna county 3, Vas and Zala counties 3-3 direct mandates would have been obtained by Fidesz-KDNP. At the same time in the capital by converting municipal election data, government parties could not have won any constituency victory. The opposition would have received a total of 28 mandates from the 106 constituencies, meaning thirteen more victories than in April 2018. 2 out of 4 in Baranya, 2 out of 6 in Borsod, 1 out of 4 in Budapest, 1 out of 4 in Csongrád and Fejér counties, 1 out of 3 in Komárom-Esztergom, 2 out of 12 in Pest County and 1 out of 6 in Szabolcs-Szatmár Bereg County an entire constituency could only win a single constituency.
The presumed national result of the municipal election
Fidesz-KDNP would have gained 53.29 percent of the votes cast on party lists in a possible parliamentary election this Sunday, but opposition parties could only score 41.9 percent, based on the vote pattern. Adding to the direct list result are the estimated 228,000 Hungarian foreign votes as well as the fractional votes. The Fidesz-KDNP could have obtained a total of 1,017,000, and the opposition alliance 1,155,000, on Sunday based on model calculations. Taking into account all the votes on the lists, using the statutory mandate formula, the governing party would have obtained a total of 51, while the opposition could have obtained 42 mandates. There are two well-known opposition parties that did not participate in the coalition, but would not have reached the 5% entry threshold, Mi Hazánk (2.7%) and MKKP (2.1%).
What if…
The modeling of municipal election to parliamentary election would have resulted a parliament with a close to two-thirds majority government: Fidesz-KDNP would have obtained 129 of the 133 mandates needed for the two-thirds. Sincet he modeling is necessarily limited and does not take into account for example the psychological effects, overall on October 13th the Fidesz-KDNP would have had every chance of a two-thirds victory.
Thus Sunday’s result does not and should not limit the governing and constitutional majority in parliamentary work over the next two and a half years. However the legitimate constitutional majority may certanly need quite a lot from the ruling coalition. Whether it is about the protection of Christian culture against multicultural and libera society, the constitutional restriction of illegal immigration against new attempts to resettle in the EU, or the protection of sovereignty in all areas of European Union influence, including issues from tax policy to national property. Though the liberal world press, which is not sympathezing with the Hungarian government, has discussed the defeat of the Orbán government on many platforms, in fact its political leeway, tools of governing and constitutinal authority remain unchanged after the October 13 municipal election.