None of the opposition parties have been able to increase their support as a result of the teachers’ strike, in fact, MSZP’s base has actually decreased – reveals Nézőpont Intézet’s representative public opinion poll completed on behalf of Heti Válasz during February 12-17, 2016. The poll also points out that although Jobbik has lost 6 percent from its previously recorded high of 17 percent in September within the total adult population, based on the most likely mandate results, it is still able to retain its active voters’ base ranging between 800 thousand and 1 million people.
Fidesz-KDNP continues to lead the party contest. In February, 31 percent of those asked favored the governing parties, which in a statistical sense is identical to the 32 percent recorded in January.
In the contest of opposition parties the Jobbik-MSZP power line-up has been reestablished last month in favor of the socialists, which was temporarily upended prior to that. Jobbik’s support has not changed substantially, (at this point it is at 11 percent after the 10 percent recorded in January), and on the other hand, the socialists are now supported by only 8 percent after the 11 percent recorded in January. MSZP’s support within the total adult population therefore has decreased by 3 percent in one single month.
As far as support levels of other parties, there have not been such major shifts: DK has 6 percent, Együtt and PM have 1 percent each and LMP possesses 3 percent support.
Based on the most likely distribution of mandates (potential voters) Fidesz-KDNP is recorded at 44 percent, Jobbik at 23 percent, MSZP has 11, DK has 10, LMP 5, Együtt 2 and PM has 1 percent.
Based on data collected by the February public opinion poll, altogether it can be stated that the opposition has not been able to benefit from the teachers’ strike.
As far as the Left is concerned, the intensifying contest has favored DK somewhat more in February: support behind Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party has once again edged closer to that of the socialists party’s backing. What most likely influenced this shift was the ex-prime minister’s active media campaign during the DK convention.
Although Jobbik lost 6 percent within the total adult population compared to its 17 percent high earlier, based on the most likely mandate results, it has still been able to retain its active voting base ranging between 800 thousand and 1 million people.
However, more people are supporting the leftist parties combined (16 percent) than the radical right (11 percent).
Methodology
Nézőpont Intézet’s public opinion poll was completed by telephone asking 1000 people during February 12-17, 2016. This sample is representative, pertaining to the population 18 years of age and older, classified by gender, age, region, settlement type and schooling completed. In case of 1000 people samples the maximum margin of error is 3.2 percent.
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